We’ve all experienced it in our careers, businesses, or personal lives: an event or a twist in the road that catches us completely off guard. A major client suddenly pulls their business, a key project goes off the rails despite early positive signs, or a market shift renders a core offering obsolete. Our typical reaction? We shake our heads, surprised by the turn of events, often chalking it up to “one of those things you just can’t predict.”

But is that always true? As George Bernard Shaw poignantly asked, “If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience.” The reality is that in many cases, the warning signs were there all along. We may have simply been ignoring them, perhaps hoping they were wrong, or, due to a common psychological trap called confirmation bias, actively seeking out information that confirmed our existing beliefs while downplaying contradictory evidence.

The Peril of Confirmation Bias in Business

Confirmation bias is our natural human tendency to favor information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses. When we’ve invested time, resources, and ego into a plan or initiative, whether it’s a business strategy, a new technology implementation, or a career path, we instinctively look for signs that we’re succeeding and that our plan is sound.

• Even if a major client shows signs of dissatisfaction, we might focus on the small positive interactions, believing we’re “turning the corner.”
• If our organization is restructuring, we might seek out reassurances that our role is safe due to our perceived contributions.
• If a critical IT project is hitting snags, we might overemphasize minor progress reports and downplay user complaints or missed milestones, convinced it will all work out.

The danger is that confirmation bias makes us filter out or rationalize away the warning signs; even if they’re like “giant neon flashing lights.” Then, when the “unexpected” (but perhaps inevitable) event occurs, we’re genuinely shocked, despite the evidence that was present.

Preparing for the “Curve Balls”: The Leader’s Duty

Business and leadership are full of twists and turns; navigating them successfully means being prepared for the “curve balls.” This isn’t about predicting the future with perfect accuracy, but about fostering a mindset that actively seeks and acknowledges all relevant information, not just the convenient parts. As a fractional CIO, I often see how confirmation bias can lead SMBs to persist with failing technology projects or outdated IT strategies, wasting valuable resources. Part of my role is to bring an objective, data-driven perspective to challenge these biases.

We must constantly fight our own confirmation bias and train ourselves to pay attention to all the signs along our path. Those warning signs might indeed prove to be minor, but we owe it to our businesses to consider them with an open mind:

• What if this negative feedback is a true indicator of a larger problem?
• What if this market shift is a real threat to our current model?
• What if this project is heading for failure unless we make a significant course correction?

We need the courage to step outside our comfortable plans and objectively consider the possibility of negative outcomes if we are to truly be successful in mitigating risks and seizing opportunities.

What’s Next

While some events are genuinely unpredictable, I believe that many of the “surprises” we encounter in business weren’t entirely unexpected. Often, the warning signs were there, but our own biases prevented us from seeing or acting on them. By cultivating a culture of objective vigilance, encouraging diverse perspectives, and consciously challenging our own assumptions, SMB leaders can become much better at anticipating challenges and adapting proactively, ultimately helping their organizations “Succeed Sooner.”

Is confirmation bias potentially blinding your SMB to critical warning signs in your operations, market, or technology initiatives? If you’re looking for an experienced, objective partner to help you see the bigger picture and make more informed strategic decisions, let’s connect with Succeed Sooner Consulting.