If you’ve ever worked on something even remotely disruptive or innovative, a new product, a significant process change, a transformative technology implementation, you’ve encountered “unknown unknowns.” These are the unexpected twists and turns that seem impossible to predict: customer feedback that shatters your assumptions, unforeseen applications of your idea, or a competitor’s blindsiding reaction. So, how do you effectively deal with them when they inevitably arise in your Small or Medium-Sized Business (SMB)?

Not All “Unknown Unknowns” Are Created Equal

First, it’s vital to recognize that “unknown unknowns” come in different flavors. Some are genuinely unknowable, while others are rooted in our own internal biases, unexamined assumptions, or insufficient upfront thinking. How you approach them differs:

1. Known Unknowns (Plan for Exploration):
   • These aren’t true “unknown unknowns” but are often lumped in. They are the things we know we don’t know at the outset of a project; perhaps specific design details, user preferences for a new feature, or the precise outcome of an experiment.
   • The Key: Plan for them. Build agile iteration, experimentation, and feedback loops into your project to address these known gaps in knowledge at the appropriate time. Be ready for surprising outcomes and be prepared to pivot. In IT projects, this means allocating time for user testing and iterative development.
2. Unknown Unknowns from Biases or Assumptions (Prevent with Preflection & Premortems):
   • Many “surprises” could have been anticipated if we weren’t hindered by our own industry assumptions, personal experiences extrapolated too broadly, or a failure to “preflect” (as discussed in “Take Time to Preflect“) or conduct “premortems” (imagining failure points before they happen).
   • Industry Assumption Example: A project to implement a new credit card system at a financial institution struggled because the team assumed the newly acquired customer portfolio would behave like their existing one. They didn’t preflect on the differences in customer expectations, leading to misaligned features and operational models. Many “unpredictable” issues were, in fact, predictable with more diligent upfront questioning of assumptions.
   • Personal Experience Example: A team improving a service experience conducted customer research that clearly showed users found the product complex and wanted simplification. However, the team, being product experts themselves, didn’t share this “headache.” They focused on technical improvements they valued, ignoring the customer feedback. The “new and improved” service, while faster, was still seen as complicated by users. An outsider view or a more objective assessment of customer research could have prevented this.
   • As a fractional CIO, part of my role is to bring that outsider view to your SMB’s IT strategy, challenging internal assumptions and ensuring technology decisions are truly customer-centric and business-aligned.
3. Truly Unknowable Unknowns (“Black Swans” – Prepare to Respond):
   • Sometimes, genuinely unpredictable events occur: a critical hardware failure, a natural disaster impacting operations, a sudden major power outage. You can’t plan for these specific black swan events. Trying to anticipate every possibility will lead to analysis paralysis.
   • The Key: Don’t ignore them when they happen. Address them immediately and have a process for doing so.
     • Assemble a focused group. This is well-suited to agile teams, but it means temporarily parking the existing backlog to tackle the critical issue.
     • Start with open minds. Eliminate pre-existing biases as you approach this new, unexpected situation.
     • Lay out what you know and what you don’t. Acknowledge the information gaps.
     • “Questionstorm” (brainstorm the right questions to ask) to ensure you’re defining the real problem created by the event.
     • Assign analysis to those best suited to find answers.
     • Iterate and adapt as you learn more, with regular, short checkpoints. Be ready to challenge initial assumptions if new information emerges.

A Strategic Approach to Navigating Uncertainty

You can’t plan for everything, so don’t try. Instead:

• Classify and plan for your “known unknowns.”
• Proactively address potential “unknown unknowns” stemming from assumptions and biases through rigorous preflection, premortems, and seeking diverse perspectives.
• Have a prepared, agile response plan for dealing with truly unknowable events when they occur.

This structured approach to managing uncertainty will maximize your SMB’s chances of success and help you “Succeed Sooner,” even when the unexpected happens.

What’s Next

Is your SMB equipped to identify and manage the different types of “unknowns” that can impact your projects and strategic initiatives, especially in the complex realm of technology? If you’re looking for a partner to help you build more resilient IT strategies, challenge assumptions, and develop effective response plans for when the “Oh Sh#*!” moments occur, let’s connect with Succeed Sooner Consulting.